Startup Financial Forecasts
First-year and three-year projections for new UK businesses with no trading history — startup costs, funding requirement, break-even and a cash flow that shows how long the money lasts.
The startup problem
No history, so every number is an assumption.
A new business cannot forecast from last year's figures. Everything comes from assumptions about pricing, volumes, timing and cost — which is exactly why they need to be written down, tested and reviewed by someone who has seen how those assumptions usually play out.
We start from what you can evidence — quotes, supplier prices, wage rates, a signed lease, a pipeline — and build the rest transparently, so you and anyone reading the model can see which figures are firm and which are estimates.
- One-off startup costs and pre-trading spend
- Total funding requirement and the cash low point
- Monthly P&L for year one, annual summary for years two and three
- Monthly cash flow including VAT and payment timing
- Break-even sales level, monthly and cumulative
- Founder drawings, salary and employer costs
Who it's for
Where a startup forecast earns its keep.
New limited companies
Recently incorporated businesses planning the first 12 to 36 months of trading.
Founders raising money
Startups approaching a lender, an investor, a grant scheme or family funding who need credible figures.
Sole traders incorporating
Existing self-employed businesses modelling the effect of moving to a limited company structure.
Second ventures
Experienced owners launching a new site, brand or product line inside or alongside an existing business.
What we model
The areas startups most often get wrong.
Multiple revenue streams
Separate pricing, volume and margin assumptions per stream, rather than one blended sales line.
Staffing and employer costs
Gross pay, employer National Insurance, pension contributions and the timing of each hire.
VAT
Whether and when you cross the registration threshold, the scheme used, and the cash effect of quarterly payments.
Working capital
Stock, customer payment terms and supplier terms — usually the reason a profitable plan still runs out of cash.
Capital spend
Equipment, fit-out and vehicles, separated from trading costs and reflected in cash when actually paid.
Scenarios
Base, upside and downside cases, so you know how much slower a launch can go before funding is short.
How it works
Our process.
Initial call
We talk through the business idea, the launch plan, who the forecast is for and your timescale.
Scope and fixed fee
We confirm deliverables and quote a bespoke fixed fee. There is no published price because scope varies widely.
Assumptions workshop
We work through pricing, volumes, staffing, overheads and startup costs, recording the evidence behind each figure.
Model build
We build the monthly P&L, cash flow and opening balance sheet, including VAT, employer costs and any funding.
Accountant review
A qualified accountant checks the model for consistency, tax treatment and whether the assumptions look achievable.
Walkthrough
We take you through the numbers so you can present and defend them, and hand over the model for you to update.
Related reading
Setting the company up properly alongside the plan.
Most founders are dealing with company setup at the same time. Our new limited company checklist covers the first steps, and how to register for VAT explains the registration process the forecast may point to.
If you are raising debt rather than planning internally, see business loan financial forecasts.
Assumptions and limitations
What a forecast can and cannot do.
- A startup forecast is an assumption-based model, not a prediction of trading. New businesses routinely differ from plan in both directions.
- We do not guarantee funding, investment or the achievement of any figure in the model.
- Where you cannot evidence an assumption, we record it as an estimate and show the effect of it being wrong, rather than presenting it as certain.
- Tax and VAT figures are estimates using current rates and the information supplied. They do not replace a filed return or formal tax advice.
- The model should be updated once real trading data exists — usually within the first three to six months.
Common Questions
Can you forecast for a business that hasn't started trading?
Yes — that is the most common case. We build from evidence you can supply, such as supplier quotes, wage rates, rent, and comparable pricing, and record everything that remains an estimate.
How many years should a startup forecast cover?
Twelve months monthly is the core. Lenders, investors and grant bodies often want a further two years summarised annually, which we add where it is useful rather than as filler.
Do you help work out how much funding I need?
Yes. The model shows the cash low point across the forecast period, which is the practical basis for the funding requirement, plus a sensible buffer for the downside case.
What if my assumptions turn out to be wrong?
They partly will — that is why we build scenarios and record assumptions clearly. Once you have real figures, the model can be updated so it stays useful rather than becoming a document you filed once.
How much does a startup forecast cost?
Fees are bespoke and confirmed after an initial call, based on the number of revenue streams, staffing complexity and how much of the underlying information already exists.
Do I need to be an accounts client to get one?
No. We prepare startup forecasts for businesses across the UK whether or not we do your ongoing accounting.
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Planning a launch?
Book an initial call to talk through the plan. We'll tell you what we'd need from you and quote a fixed fee before starting.